Mean-Variance and Expected Utility: The Borch Paradox

The model of rational decision-making in most of economics and statistics is expected utility theory (EU) axiomatised by von Neumann and Morgenstern, Savage and others. This is less the case, however, in financial economics and mathematical finance, where investment decisions are commonly based on the methods of mean-variance (MV) introduced in the 1950s by Markowitz. Under the MV framework, each available investment opportunity ("asset") or portfolio is represented in just two dimensions by the ex ante mean and standard deviation $(\mu,\sigma)$ of the financial return anticipated from that investment. Utility adherents consider that in general MV methods are logically incoherent. Most famously, Norwegian insurance theorist Borch presented a proof suggesting that two-dimensional MV indifference curves cannot represent the preferences of a rational investor (he claimed that MV indifference curves "do not exist"). This is known as Borch's paradox and gave rise to an important but generally little-known philosophical literature relating MV to EU. We examine the main early contributions to this literature, focussing on Borch's logic and the arguments by which it has been set aside.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-STS408 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Gameplay experience in a gaze interaction game

Assessing gameplay experience for gaze interaction games is a challenging task. For this study, a gaze interaction Half-Life 2 game modification was created that allowed eye tracking control. The mod was deployed during an experiment at Dreamhack 2007, where participants had to play with gaze navigation and afterwards rate their gameplay experience. The results show low tension and negative affects scores on the gameplay experience questionnaire as well as high positive challenge, immersion and flow ratings. The correlation between spatial presence and immersion for gaze interaction was high and yields further investigation. It is concluded that gameplay experience can be correctly assessed with the methodology presented in this paper.Comment: pages 49-54, The 5th Conference on Communication by Gaze Interaction - COGAIN 2009: Gaze Interaction For Those Who Want It Most, ISBN: 978-87-643-0475-

Mean-variance and expected utility: The borch paradox

The model of rational decision-making in most of economics and statistics is expected utility theory (EU) axiomatised by von Neumann and Morgenstern, Savage and others. This is less the case, however, in financial economics and mathematical finance, where investment decisions are commonly based on the methods of mean-variance (MV) introduced in the 1950s by Markowitz. Under the MV framework, each available investment opportunity ( asset ) or portfolio is represented in just two dimensions by the ex ante mean and standard deviation (μ,σ) of the financial return anticipated from that investment. Utility adherents consider that in general MV methods are logically incoherent. Most famously, Norwegian insurance theorist Borch presented a proof suggesting that two-dimensional MV indifference curves cannot represent the preferences of a rational investor (he claimed that MV indifference curves do not exist ). This is known as Borch\u27s paradox and gave rise to an important but generally little-known philosophical literature relating MV to EU. We examine the main early contributions to this literature, focussing on Borch\u27s logic and the arguments by which it has been set aside

Mapping urban green infrastructure : a novel landscape-based approach to incorporating land-use and land-cover in the mapping of human-dominated systems

Common approaches to mapping green infrastructure in urbanized landscapes invariably focus on measures of land-use or land-cover and associated functional or physical traits. However, such one-dimensional perspectives do not accurately capture the character and complexity of the landscapes in which urban inhabitants live. The new approach presented in this paper demonstrates how open-source, high spatial and temporal resolution data with global coverage can be used to measure and represent the landscape qualities of urban environments. Through going beyond simple metrics of quantity, such as percentage green and blue cover it is now possible to explore the extent to which landscape quality helps to unpick the mixed evidence presented in the literature on the benefits of urban nature to human well-being. Here we present a landscape approach, employing remote sensing, GIS and data reduction techniques, to map urban green infrastructure elements in a large UK city-region. Comparison with existing urban datasets demonstrates considerable improvement in terms of coverage and thematic detail. The characterisation of landscapes, using census tracts as spatial units, and subsequent exploration of associations with social-ecological attributes highlights the further detail which can be uncovered with the approach. For example, eight urban landscape types identified for the case study city exhibited associations with distinct socio-economic conditions accountable not only to quantities but also qualities of green and blue space. The identification of individual landscape features through simultaneous measures of land-use and land cover demonstrated unique and significant associations between the former and indicators of human health and ecological condition. The approach may therefore provide a promising basis for developing further insight into the processes and characteristics which affect human health and wellbeing in urban areas, both in the UK and beyond

First Reported Prairie Dog–to-Human Tularemia Transmission, Texas, 2002

A tularemia outbreak, caused by Francisella tularensis type B, occurred among wild-caught, commercially traded prairie dogs. F. tularensis microagglutination titers in one exposed person indicated recent infection. These findings represent the first evidence for prairie-dog-to-human tularemia transmission and demonstrate potential human health risks of the exotic pet trade

Laboratory Analysis of Tularemia in Wild-Trapped, Commercially Traded Prairie Dogs, Texas, 2002

Oropharyngeal tularemia was identified as the cause of a die-off in captured wild prairie dogs at a commercial exotic animal facility in Texas. From this point source, Francisella tularensis–infected prairie dogs were traced to animals distributed to the Czech Republic and to a Texas pet shop. F. tularensis culture isolates were recovered tissue specimens from 63 prairie dogs, including one each from the secondary distribution sites. Molecular and biochemical subtyping indicated that all isolates were F. tularensis subsp. holarctica (Type B). Microagglutination assays detected antibodies against F. tularensis, with titers as great as 1:4,096 in some live animals. All seropositive animals remained culture positive, suggesting that prairie dogs may act as chronic carriers of F. tularensis. These findings demonstrate the need for additional studies of tularemia in prairie dogs, given the seriousness of the resulting disease, the fact that prairie dogs are sold commercially as pets, and the risk for pet-to-human transmission

Integrating knowledge on green infrastructure, health and well-being in ageing populations: principles for research and practice

Ageing and urbanisation pose significant challenges for public health and urban planning. Ageing populations are at particular risk from hazards arising from urbanisation processes, some of which are in turn exacerbated by climate change. One approach for mitigating the negative effects of urbanisation on ageing populations is the leveraging of the beneficial effects of urban green infrastructure as a public health intervention in the planning process. We assessed the potential of available theoretical frameworks to provide the context for such leverage. This involved active engagement with academics and practitioners specialising in ageing, green infrastructure and health and well-being through a knowledge-brokering approach. We concluded that an integrated and comprehensive framework on the socio-cultural-ecological determinants of health is lacking. To address this, we present a set of principles for overcoming challenges to knowledge integration when working at the intersection of green infrastructure, ageing, health and well-being. Our findings—and the co-production process used to generate them—have wider significance for trans-disciplinary research into the benefits of the natural environment to human health and well-being as well as other complex and interconnected topics associated with global grand challenges

Bayesian inference for the information gain model

One of the most popular paradigms to use for studying human reasoning involves the Wason card selection task. In this task, the participant is presented with four cards and a conditional rule (e.g., “If there is an A on one side of the card, there is always a 2 on the other side”). Participants are asked which cards should be turned to verify whether or not the rule holds. In this simple task, participants consistently provide answers that are incorrect according to formal logic. To account for these errors, several models have been proposed, one of the most prominent being the information gain model (Oaksford & Chater, Psychological Review, 101, 608–631, 1994). This model is based on the assumption that people independently select cards based on the expected information gain of turning a particular card. In this article, we present two estimation methods to fit the information gain model: a maximum likelihood procedure (programmed in R) and a Bayesian procedure (programmed in WinBUGS). We compare the two procedures and illustrate the flexibility of the Bayesian hierarchical procedure by applying it to data from a meta-analysis of the Wason task (Oaksford & Chater, Psychological Review, 101, 608–631, 1994). We also show that the goodness of fit of the information gain model can be assessed by inspecting the posterior predictives of the model. These Bayesian procedures make it easy to apply the information gain model to empirical data. Supplemental materials may be downloaded along with this article from www.springerlink.com

Update on the third international stroke trial (IST-3) of thrombolysis for acute ischaemic stroke and baseline features of the 3035 patients recruited

Intravenous recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rtPA) is approved in Europe for use in patients with acute ischaemic stroke who meet strictly defined criteria. IST-3 sought to improve the external validity and precision of the estimates of the overall treatment effects (efficacy and safety) of rtPA in acute ischaemic stroke, and to determine whether a wider range of patients might benefit